Commiseration

There will be some big losers – unless they plan now to take a different role in the new world that this is heading towards.

Supermarket Chains

Supermarkets are not going to relish the LocalHub having access to the same – if not better – range of products than they have on their shelves. The large supermarket companies, with their extremely efficient logistics and purchasing networks will be well placed to survive but in a very different form.

Hypermarkets

Large out of town supermarkets will need less retail floor space for shoppers and less car parking. However, converting, say half of the supermarket into a district hub for one delivery makes sound economic sense. They already have good access for the large lorries that still need to bring the same amount of food into the area. By converting part of their floor area into automated packing and box handling areas they can fill the medium sized vans that take goods to the LocalHub.

As described earlier, these intermediate vans will also have passenger accommodation and so can bring shoppers to the store on the (now fewer) occasions that they want to browse for something different or to visit the other shops and services nearby. A model closer to that in France where each hypermarket typically has a row of smaller shops across the front of the checkouts would work well. A bank, a newsagent, a pharmacy, a shoe shop etc. could all be fitted into the now redundant space.

Local “Convenience” Supermarkets

While the hypermarkets have been blamed for killing Britain’s town centres, their smaller cousins, the “Express”, “Local” or similarly named outlets have been taking business from the village shops. With the logistics might of the chain behind them, they have turned many a vacant lot or petrol station into a bustling local supermarket.
The village shops that these replaced were often tiny – typically having been designed as a house rather than a shop – and certainly not able to accommodate an 18-wheeler delivering overnight! The local supermarkets, however, have more space and are more accessible. They are often therefore in ideal sites to become local delivery hubs.
The hub design proposed allows for a relatively small footprint by going up rather than out so will fit well in a fairly small site. Most of the existing supermarket sites form part of or have an adjoining petrol station – but very limited parking. As we move away from petrol, there will be less need for this and this area could be given wholly or partially over to car-parking – for customers and the electric pool cars that will be available for hire there.

Role Change

The existing 3-6 leading players in each country could actually thrive but under this different model. As their local convenience supermarkets turn into delivery hubs and are handed over to local franchisees or licensees, the large supermarket sites provide choice and competition at the back end. For a strong consumer brand, that can be bought through the local hub, there is now little to no benefit or concern as to how it got there – hence the supermarket brands have to compete not for customers but for producers. If the producer of a popular brand of cheese wants it to be available at all LocalHubs, he may choose to deal with just one or perhaps two supermarkets to get it there. This gives him some bargaining power which is currently lost as he really needs to appear on the shelves of all five leading supermarkets.